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计篇 LAYING PLANS Laying Plans · The Calculations 计篇 · 庙算 Also: "The Calculations" — emphasizing its mathematical essence Alternative: The Calculations — 强调其数学本质

" 多算胜,少算不胜,而况于无算乎? The general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. "
Strategic Weight战略权重
95%

SOURCE TEXT & TRANSLATIONS原文与双译

Classical Chinese · Modern Chinese · English古文 · 今译 · 英译

Classical Chinese 原文古文原文

孫子曰:兵者,國之大事,死生之地,存亡之道,不可不察也。 sūn zǐ yuē: bīng zhě, guó zhī dà shì, sǐ shēng zhī dì, cún wáng zhī dào, bù kě bù chá yě.
故經之以五事,校之以計,而索其情:一曰道,二曰天,三曰地,四曰將,五曰法。 gù jīng zhī yǐ wǔ shì, jiào zhī yǐ jì, ér suǒ qí qíng...
道者,令民與上同意也,可與之死,可與之生,而不畏危。 dào zhě, lìng mín yǔ shàng tóng yì yě...
天者,陰陽、寒暑、時制也。地者,遠近、險易、廣狹、死生也。 tiān zhě, yīn yáng, hán shǔ, shí zhì yě...
將者,智、信、仁、勇、嚴也。法者,曲制、官道、主用也。 jiàng zhě, zhì, xìn, rén, yǒng, yán yě...
凡此五者,將莫不聞,知之者勝,不知者不勝。 fán cǐ wǔ zhě, jiàng mò bù wén...
故校之以計,而索其情。曰:主孰有道?將孰有能?天地孰得?法令孰行?兵眾孰強?士卒孰練?賞罰孰明?吾以此知勝負矣。 gù jiào zhī yǐ jì, ér suǒ qí qíng...
將聽吾計,用之必勝,留之;將不聽吾計,用之必敗,去之。 jiāng tīng wú jì, yòng zhī bì shèng...
計利以聽,乃為之勢,以佐其外。勢者,因利而制權也。 jì lì yǐ tīng, nǎi wéi zhī shì...
兵者,詭道也。故能而示之不能,用而示之不用,近而示之遠,遠而示之近。 bīng zhě, guǐ dào yě...
利而誘之,亂而取之,實而備之,強而避之,怒而撓之,卑而驕之,佚而勞之,親而離之。 lì ér yòu zhī, luàn ér qǔ zhī...
攻其無備,出其不意。此兵家之勝,不可先傳也。 gōng qí wú bèi, chū qí bù yì...
夫未戰而廟算勝者,得算多也;未戰而廟算不勝者,得算少也。多算勝,少算不勝,而況於無算乎?吾以此觀之,勝負見矣。 fū wèi zhàn ér miào suàn shèng zhě...

Modern Chinese 今译现代汉语译文

孙子说:战争是国家的大事,关系到军民的生死、国家的存亡,不能不认真考察研究。
因此,要从五个方面来分析,通过计算比较来探索敌我双方的真实情况:一是道,二是天,三是地,四是将,五是法。
所谓"道",是使民众与君主同心同德,可以同生共死,而不畏惧危险。
所谓"天",是指昼夜、阴晴、寒冬、酷暑等天候季节的变化。所谓"地",是指路途的远近、地势的险要与平坦、作战地域的广阔与狭窄、地形是否有利于攻守进退。
所谓"将",是指将帅的智谋、诚信、仁爱、勇毅、严明。所谓"法",是指军队的组织编制、将吏的职责分工、军需物资的管理供应。
凡属这五个方面的情况,将帅没有不知道的,但只有深刻了解的才能取胜,不真正了解的就不能取胜。
因此,要通过对双方各种条件的比较来探求战争胜负的情势。也就是说:哪一方的君主更得民心?哪一方的将帅更有才能?哪一方更得天时地利?哪一方法令更能贯彻执行?哪一方的军事实力更强?哪一方的士卒训练更有素?哪一方的赏罚更严明?我根据这些就能判断谁胜谁败了。
如果听从我的计谋,用兵作战一定能取胜,我就留下来;如果不听从我的计谋,用兵作战必定失败,我就离去。
有利的计策已被采纳,还要设法造"势",作为辅助条件。所谓"势",就是根据有利条件而采取灵活机动的措施。
用兵打仗是一种诡诈之术。所以,能打装作不能打,要打装作不打,要向近处装作要向远处,要向远处装作要向近处。
敌人贪利就用小利引诱他,敌人混乱就趁机攻取他,敌人力量充实就要防备他,敌人强大就暂时避开他,敌人易怒就挑逗激怒他,敌人谦卑就使之骄纵,敌人安逸就使之疲劳,敌人团结就离间他。
攻击敌人没有防备的地方,在敌人意想不到的时候出击。这是军事家取胜的奥妙,不可事先呆板规定。
凡是在开战之前就预计能够取胜的,是因为筹划周密、获胜条件充分;开战之前就预计不能取胜的,是因为筹划不周、获胜条件不足。筹划周密就能取胜,筹划不周就不能取胜,更何况根本不作筹划呢?我根据这些来观察,谁胜谁败就显而易见了。

English Translation

Sun Tzu said: The art of war is of vital importance to the State. It is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin. Hence it is a subject of inquiry which can on no account be neglected.
The art of war, then, is governed by five constant factors, to be taken into account in one's deliberations, when seeking to determine the conditions obtaining in the field. These are: (1) The Moral Law; (2) Heaven; (3) Earth; (4) The Commander; (5) Method and discipline.
The Moral Law causes the people to be in complete accord with their ruler, so that they will follow him regardless of their lives, undismayed by any danger.
Heaven signifies night and day, cold and heat, times and seasons. Earth comprises distances, great and small; danger and security; open ground and narrow chances of life and death.
The Commander stands for the virtues of wisdom, sincerely, benevolence, courage, and strictness. Method and discipline marshalling the army in its proper subdivisions, graduations of rank among the officers, the regulation of supply routes, and the provision of military supplies to the army.
These five heads should be familiar to every general: he who knows them will be victorious; he who knows them not will fail.
Therefore, in your deliberations, when seeking to determine the military conditions, let them be made the basis of a comparison, in this wise:— (1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued with the Moral law? (2) Which of the two generals has most ability? (3) With whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven and Earth? (4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced? (5) Which army is stronger? (6) On which side are officers and men more highly trained? (7) In which army is there the greater constancy both in reward and punishment? By means of these seven considerations I can forecast victory or defeat.
The general that hearkens to my counsel and acts upon it, will conquer: — let such a one be retained in command! The general that hearkens not to my counsel nor acts upon it, will suffer defeat: — let such a one be dismissed!
While hearkening to my counsel, avail yourself also of any helpful circumstances over and beyond the ordinary conditions. By "helpful circumstances" mean every advantage that can be gained by adapting one's plans to the enemy's position.
All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him. If he is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. If he is at ease and in comfort, exhaust him. If his forces are united, separate them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.
These military devices, leading to victory, must not be divulged beforehand.
Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.

ANNOTATED COMMENTARY逐段注释

Lexical · Institutional · Philosophical字词注 · 典章注 · 义理注

bīng
war / warfare / military

The original meaning is "weapons" → extended to "soldiers" → further extended to "war" in its entirety. Here Sun Tzu uses the third sense, referring to military conflict as a whole. Giles translates it as "the art of war," which captures the comprehensive scope.本义:兵器 → 引申:士兵 → 再引申:战争。此处取第三义,指军事冲突整体。Giles译为"the art of war",抓住了其全面性。

chá
to investigate / to scrutinize

Not mere "observation" but rigorous investigation — the same character used in judicial contexts (审察). It implies systematic analysis, not passive looking. Sun Tzu demands that rulers calculate, not merely contemplate.非简单"观察",而是精密考察——与"审察"同义,含系统分析之义。孙武要求的是"算",不是"看"。

詭道
guǐ dào
the way of deception / artful methods

Often mistranslated as "trickery" or "dishonesty." 詭 here means "variable, unpredictable" — the opposite of rigid orthodoxy. 道 is "method" or "principle." Together: "the principle of infinite variation." War demands flexibility, not fixed formulas.常被误译为"诡计"或"欺诈"。"诡"此处义为"变化无穷",非"奸诈";"道"即方法。合起来是"变化之道"。用兵贵在灵活,不拘一格。

廟算
miào suàn
temple calculations / pre-war planning

The final and most important term in the chapter. 廟 (temple) refers to the ancestral temple where pre-war councils were held; 算 (calculation) refers to the use of counting rods (算筹) for strategic assessment. Together: the formal, systematic strategic assessment conducted before military action.本篇最重要的收束概念。"庙"指祖庙,古代出征前在此举行军事会议;"算"指用算筹进行推演。合称:出征前在祖庙进行的正式战略评估。

廟算制度
miào suàn zhìdù
The Temple Calculation System

In the Zhou dynasty, before any major military campaign, the king would convene a council at the ancestral temple (太廟). Ministers, generals, and diviners would assess enemy strength, terrain, timing, and resources using counting rods (算筹). The number of "calculations" (算) each side possessed determined confidence. This was essentially an early form of strategic decision-making protocol — not unlike a modern board meeting for war.周代出征前,天子于太庙召集军事会议。大臣、将领、卜官用算筹评估敌方实力、地形、时机、资源。双方"算"的数量决定信心程度。这本质上是一种早期战略决策流程——类似现代董事会的战投决策。

五事
wǔ shì
The Five Factors

The five fundamental dimensions of strategic assessment: Dào (Moral Law), Tiān (Heaven/Climate), Dì (Earth/Terrain), Jiàng (Commander), Fǎ (Method/Discipline). These are not abstract philosophy but operational categories — each measurable and comparable between adversaries. Think of them as the original "balanced scorecard" for military strategy.战略评估的五个基本维度:道(民心)、天(天候)、地(地形)、将(统帅)、法(制度)。这不是抽象哲学,而是可操作的评估类别——每项均可量化比较。可视为最早的军事"平衡计分卡"。

七計
qī jì
The Seven Comparisons

Seven concrete questions for comparing one's own position against the enemy: (1) Which ruler has the Moral Law? (2) Which general has more ability? (3) Who holds Heaven and Earth's advantages? (4) Whose discipline is better enforced? (5) Whose army is stronger? (6) Whose officers and men are better trained? (7) Whose rewards and punishments are clearer? This is essentially a competitive analysis framework — 2,500 years before Porter's Five Forces.七个具体的敌我比较问题:主孰有道?将孰有能?天地孰得?法令孰行?兵众孰强?士卒孰练?赏罚孰明?这本质上是一个竞争分析框架——比波特五力早了2500年。

曹操注 (Cáo Cāo, 155–220 CE)
「計者,選將、量敵、度地、料卒、遠近、險易,計于廟堂也。」
"Calculation means selecting generals, measuring the enemy, assessing terrain, estimating troops, distances, and dangers — all calculated in the temple court." Cao Cao emphasizes that 計 is a concrete computational process, not abstract philosophy.曹操强调"计"是具体的计算过程,不是抽象哲学。
杜牧注 (Dù Mù, 803–852 CE)
「計者,兵之上也。」
"Calculation is the supreme principle of warfare." Du Mu elevates 計 from mere technique to the paramount strategic principle — calculation is strategy.杜牧将"计"从技术提升为最高战略原则——"计"即战略本身。
张预注 (Zhāng Yù, Song dynasty)
「孙子以书奏闔閭,首言計者,以兵之道未战先計,故以《计篇》为首。」
"When Sun Tzu presented his book to King Helü, he spoke first of calculation because the way of war requires calculation before fighting — hence the Calculations opens the work." Zhang Yu reveals the structural logic of the entire book.张预揭示了全书的结构逻辑:先计后战,故以计篇为始。

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS现代战略点评

Eastern Wisdom · Western Dialogue东方战略 · 西方对话

EASTERN ANALYSIS东方战略学

Sun Tzu's Five Factors represent a proto-quantitative decision model. Each factor can be scored and compared:五事七计是一个原型量化决策模型,每个维度可量化评分:

Dào 道 = Legitimacy Index
Tiān 天 = Timing Window
Dì 地 = Resource Endowment
Jiàng 将 = Leadership Assessment
Fǎ 法 = Organizational Efficiency

This anticipates the "Balanced Scorecard" (Kaplan & Norton, 1992) by 2,500 years — measuring strategy across multiple non-financial dimensions.这比"平衡计分卡"(Kaplan & Norton, 1992)早了2500年——从多个非财务维度衡量战略。

WESTERN DIALOGUE

Clausewitz argues "war is the continuation of politics" — emphasizing purpose. Sun Tzu emphasizes calculation. They complement each other: politics sets direction, calculation determines feasibility.克劳塞维茨说"战争是政治的延续"——强调目的性。孙子强调计算性。两者互补:政治定方向,计算定可行性。

Michael Porter's Five Forces shows a striking structural parallel:波特五力模型有惊人相似:

Dào → Buyer Power? | Tiān → New Entrants? | Dì → Substitutes? | Jiàng → Supplier Power? | Fǎ → Competitive Rivalry? 道→买方议价力?| 天→新进入者?| 地→替代品?| 将→卖方议价力?| 法→同业竞争?

John Boyd's OODA Loop (Observe–Orient–Decide–Act) can be seen as the dynamic version of Sun Tzu's 計: temple calculation is the pre-deployment OODA loop.博伊德OODA循环(观察-判断-决策-行动)可视为"计"的动态版:庙算即部署前的OODA。

DÀO 道 TIĀN 天 DÌ 地 JIĀNG 将 FǍ 法 —— Five Factors Radar ——

CASE STUDIES战例库

Ancient China · Ancient West · Modern Business · Counter-Example中国古战 · 西方古战 · 现代商战 · 反例

隆中对 - The Longzhong Plan
ANCIENT CHINA

隆中对:计篇的完整预演

The Longzhong Plan: A Classic Calculation

In 207 CE, the 27-year-old Zhuge Liang presented Liu Bei with a complete strategic assessment — essentially a live demonstration of the Five Factors method. Facing Cao Cao's overwhelming power and Sun Quan's entrenched position, Zhuge Liang systematically evaluated each factor to propose the "three kingdoms" strategy.公元207年,27岁的诸葛亮向刘备提出了完整的战略评估——本质上是五事分析法的实战演示。面对曹操的压倒性优势和孙权的稳固地位,诸葛亮系统评估每个因素,提出"三分天下"之策。

DÀO
Liu Bei's claim as "Imperial Uncle" vs. Cao Cao's "holding the Emperor hostage"刘备"帝室之胄" vs 曹操"挟天子"
TIĀN
The chaos of the era → opportunity for a tripartite division天下大乱→三分之势的时机
Jingzhou & Yizhou: "occupy both Jing and Yi"荆州、益州:"跨有荆益"
JIĀNG
Zhuge Liang compared himself to Guan Zhong and Yue Yi诸葛亮自比管仲、乐毅
Yizhou "prosperous but ruled by the weak Liu Zhang"刘璋"暗弱",西川可图

The famous line — "Cao Cao holds a million troops and commands in the Emperor's name; one cannot contend with him directly" — is a textbook application of 计篇: acknowledging enemy strengths through honest calculation, not wishful thinking."曹操拥百万之众,挟天子以令诸侯,此诚不可与争锋"——这是计篇的经典应用:通过诚实计算承认敌方优势,而非一厢情愿。

伯罗奔尼撒战争 - Peloponnesian War
ANCIENT WEST

修昔底德陷阱的"计篇"分析

Thucydides' Calculation: Corinth vs. Athens

Before the Peloponnesian War (431 BCE), the Corinthian delegation at Sparta conducted what was essentially a Five Factors assessment of their alliance vs. Athens. Thucydides records it as one of history's earliest competitive strategic analyses.伯罗奔尼撒战争(公元前431年)前,科林斯代表在斯巴达进行了一场本质上是"五事"的评估——对比己方同盟与雅典。修昔底德的记录是历史上最早的竞品战略分析之一。

DÀO
"Liberate Greece" vs. Athenian democratic appeal"解放希腊" vs 雅典民主制吸引力
TIĀN
After Pericles' death, radical factions took power in Athens伯里克利死后激进派上台
Spartan land superiority vs. Athenian naval dominance斯巴达陆军优势 vs 雅典海军优势
JIĀNG
Archidamus II's caution vs. Brasidas' boldness阿希达穆斯的谨慎 vs 伯拉西达的激进
Dual kingship & citizen assembly decision-making双王制与公民大会的决策效率
Netflix vs Blockbuster
MODERN BUSINESS

流媒体革命:不战而屈人之兵

The Netflix Disruption: Winning Without Fighting

Netflix never fought Blockbuster on price. Instead, it made Blockbuster's entire business model obsolete — a textbook application of "the supreme art is to subdue the enemy without fighting." Reed Hastings ran a Five Factors analysis that most MBA programs still teach today.Netflix从未与Blockbuster打价格战,而是直接使其商业模式过时——"不战而屈人之兵"的教科书案例。Reed Hastings的五事分析至今仍被MBA课程引用。

DÀO
"No late fees" user promise vs. Blockbuster's late fee revenue model"无滞纳金" vs Blockbuster的滞纳金依赖
TIĀN
Post-2000: broadband costs plummet, streaming becomes viable2000年后带宽成本骤降
DVD-by-mail logistics vs. expensive retail locationsDVD邮寄物流 vs 实体店租金
JIĀNG
Reed Hastings' tech background vs. traditional retail thinkingHastings技术背景 vs 传统零售思维
Algorithm-driven recommendations vs. manual shelf management算法推荐系统 vs 人工货架管理

"Attack his strategy" (上兵伐谋): Netflix's genius was not in being a better video store, but in making the video store concept itself irrelevant."上兵伐谋":Netflix的天才不在于做一个更好的录像店,而是让"录像店"这个概念本身变得无关紧要。

拿破仑征俄 - Napoleon's Russian Campaign
COUNTER-EXAMPLE

❌ 战略误判:当"计"成为形式主义

Napoleon's Russian Campaign (1812): A Failure of Calculation

Napoleon invaded Russia with 600,000 men. He returned with fewer than 100,000. Not because he didn't plan — he planned obsessively — but because his planning was formalistic: he calculated logistics while ignoring the Five Factors.拿破仑以60万人入侵俄国,归来不足10万。不是因为没有计划——他疯狂地计划——而是因为他的计划是形式主义的:他计算后勤却忽视了五事。

道 ✗
DÀO
"Liberate Europe" slogan vs. Russian partisan warfare"解放欧洲" vs 俄国民兵游击战
天 ✗
TIĀN
Winter campaign miscalculation — not uncalculated, but overconfident冬季作战的天之误判——非未算,而是过度自信
地 ✗
Russian depth + scorched earth = collapsed supply lines俄国纵深+焦土政策=补给线崩溃
将 ✗
JIĀNG
Kutuzov's patience vs. Napoleon's impatience库图佐夫的耐心 vs 拿破仑的急躁
法 ✗
Grande Armée's structure ill-suited for guerrilla warfare大军团编制在游击战中低效

Core failure: "War is a matter of life and death" → Napoleon placed personal glory above national interest. His "calculations" were arithmetic; Sun Tzu demands strategic calculation.核心错误:"兵者,国之大事"→拿破仑将个人荣誉置于国家利益之上。他的"计算"只是算术;孙武要求的是战略计算。

STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT CALCULATOR五事七计计算器

Score your competitive position using Sun Tzu's Five Factors用五事框架评估你的竞争态势

DÀO
Moral Alignment — legitimacy & team buy-in民心向背——合法性与团队共识
7
TIĀN
Timing — market conditions & opportunity window天时——市场时机与机会窗口
6
Terrain — resource advantages & positional strength地利——资源优势与区位优势
8
JIĀNG
Command — leadership capability & talent depth将才——领导力与人才储备
7
Method — organizational efficiency & discipline法度——组织效率与制度执行力
5
VICTORY INDEX 多算胜指数多算胜指数 VICTORY INDEX
66%
Proceed with caution. Focus on strengthening Method (法) — your organizational discipline is the current weak link. 谨慎推进。重点补强的维度——组织制度是当前短板。
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