经典原文 · Core Text
原文
「凡料敌，有不卜而与之战者八，有不占而避之者六。」
English Translation
"In assessing the enemy, there are eight conditions under which one may attack without divination, and six conditions under which one should avoid battle without omen-reading."
案例 · Case Studies
韩信还定三秦：读懂信号的逆袭
Han Xin Reclaims Sanqin: The Comeback Built on Reading Signals
刘邦被项羽封到汉中，将士思归，看似绝境。韩信却从乱象中读出三个信号：项羽杀义帝，诸侯离心——这是「不和于国」；三秦王失秦民心——这是「恃险而虚静」；项羽主力远在齐地——这是「远而挑战，欲人之进」。韩信明修栈道，暗度陈仓，不是冒险，而是基于情报的精确计算。
Liu Bang was exiled to Hanzhong by Xiang Yu, his soldiers homesick — apparently a dead end. Yet Han Xin read three signals: Xiang Yu had murdered the Emperor Yi, alienating vassals — "discord within the state"; the three Qin kings had lost the people's hearts — "relying on terrain but internally hollow"; and Xiang Yu's main force was far away in Qi. Han Xin's secret crossing at Chencang was not gambling, but precision calculation based on intelligence.
字节跳动「偷袭」腾讯
ByteDance's "Surprise Attack" on Tencent: The Short Video War
2016年，腾讯音乐游戏如日中天，但张一鸣从三个信号看到战机：腾讯内容分发依赖长图文，短视频是空白——「敌近而静，据险而守」；快手已验证模式但管理粗放——「敌众哗乱，幕备不谨」；腾讯同时布局多个产品线——「倍道兼行，人马未食」。字节没有正面进攻社交，而是从对手最疲惫、最忽视的短视频切入。
In 2016, Tencent seemed invincible. Yet Zhang Yiming saw three signals: Tencent relied on long-form text, leaving short video blank — "the enemy is quiet nearby, relying on its terrain"; Kuaishou had validated the model but managed it crudely; and Tencent was pushing multiple product lines simultaneously — "forcing marches, troops unfed." ByteDance struck where Tencent was most neglectful.
竞聘前的「敌情分析」
Pre-Promotion Competitive Intelligence
某工程师竞聘总监，对手是资深经理。他用吴子「料敌」框架收集情报：观其外——对手项目推进缓慢，但汇报频繁，这是「恃资历之险」；察其内——对手近期频繁约CEO吃饭，但业务数据平平，这是「使者卑辞，敌怯也」；度其才——复盘对手过去三个项目，两个延期一个取消，执行力有硬伤。他没有拼资历，而是集中展示数据化成果和可落地的Q4方案。以实击虚，成功晋升。
An engineer competed for a director position against a senior manager. Using Wu Zi's framework, he gathered intelligence: his rival's projects moved slowly but reports were frequent — "relying on the terrain of seniority"; the rival frequently dined with the CEO but metrics were mediocre; two of three recent projects were delayed. He concentrated on data-driven achievements and won.
商业竞争的最高境界，不是战胜对手，而是读懂对手后选择不战而胜。
The highest realm of business competition is not defeating rivals, but reading them so well that you win without fighting.
料敌决策模拟
Enemy Assessment Decision Simulator
斥候来报：敌军主力距我三十里扎营，营中炊烟稀少，旗帜陈旧，但壁垒森严。使者频来，言辞谦卑。
Scouts report: The enemy camp is thirty li away. Cooking fires are few, banners are old, yet fortifications are strong. Envoys come frequently with humble words.